Why Brewers leaning towards Dustin May as Game 3 starter raises their playoff rotation's ceiling

Easily the biggest question facing the Milwaukee Brewers as they prepare for their much-anticipated postseason run is: Who is the team's No. 3 starter in the playoffs? With NL Cy Young front-runner Jacob Misiorowski locked in as the Game 1 starter and rookie standout Logan Henderson expected to take the ball in Game 2, the Brewers are essentially left with two true starting options for Game 3: rookie southpaw Robert Gasser and trade deadline acquisition Dustin May.

Earlier today, MLB.com's Brewers beat reporter Adam McCalvy offered insight as to which way the team is leaning with their No. 3 starter. As reported by McCalvy, "The Brewers’ other NLDS starter, unless something changes, will probably be May." McCalvy went on to note that the Brewers greatly value May's postseason experience and trust his stuff to perform in the playoffs.

The report may come as a shock to some Brewers fans; Gasser has out-pitched May over the last month, and is on the heels of a dominant performance against the Baltimore Orioles, during which he covered seven shutout innings while allowing just three hits. Since August 3, the date that the Brewers acquired May from the St. Louis Cardinals, Gasser has a 3.29 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 41.0 innings pitched. During that same stretch, May has posted a 5.40 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in just 31.2 innings.

However, despite the difference in recent surface-level numbers, the Brewers' leaning towards May as their No. 3 starter in the postseason is absolutely the right call, and it raises Milwaukee's playoff rotation's ceiling.

Dustin May's postseason experience, strong "swing-and-miss" arsenal makes him best choice to be Brewers' No. 3 playoff starter

With an inexperienced rotation at the trade deadline, the Brewers were seeking a starter with postseason experience. A large part of the reason they decided on May was the fact that the 29-year-old right-hander has nine postseason appearances to his name, all of which came with the Los Angeles Dodgers during the 2019 and 2020 playoffs. Compare that to the 2.2 innings of low-leverage relief experience that Gasser gained in his postseason debut last year, and May certainly holds the advantage when it comes to knowing what to expect from a playoff start.

To not take advantage of May's postseason experience when it was a significant part of his trade deadline appeal would make little sense for the Brewers. Milwaukee added the veteran starter moreso for the postseason than for his contributions during the final two months of the season, knowing they could have navigated the regular season with their internal options but that their postseason rotation's ceiling would be raised by adding a starter like May.

However, it's not just May's experience that makes him the best choice to serve as the Brewers' No. 3 starter in October; it's also the potential of his arsenal. Between Gasser and May, it's the latter who has better strikeout stuff. Even during this inconsistent period over the last seven weeks, May has a higher strikeout rate, a higher chase rate, and a lower contact rate than Gasser. May's season-long whiff rate also slightly outpaces Gasser's, and when missing bats becomes that much more important in October, it's May who the Brewers want to have on the mound.

Even during these last two months, it's become apparent that May has the higher ceiling of the two starting options. Yes, Gasser has turned in some impressive performances as of late, none better than his start against the Orioles over the weekend, but May's best outings have included more strikeouts, more whiffs, and fewer walks. Pair that with the dominant starts May posted as a member of the Cardinals earlier this year, including a complete-game, one-hit, nine-strikeout shutout against the San Diego Padres, who look all but certain to make the playoffs, and it's clear that May has the higher ceiling, and should therefore be the No. 3 starter in the postseason.

That's not to say Gasser won't have a role on the playoff roster. In fact, given the playoff schedule this year, he may even make a start as well, and by no means should his recent performance be ignored or taken for granted. However, to win the World Series, teams need to reach their ceiling in October, and the only way to do that is by rolling out a starting rotation with the highest possible ceiling. Such a reality absolutely justifies the Brewers' decision to use May as their No. 3 starter regardless of his performance during the final two months of the regular season. That said, a strong outing or two from May down the stretch would undoubtedly calm the nerves of the Brewers' fanbase.

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