Early 2026 projections show confidence in this Brewers' breakout rookie season

Caleb Durbin entered the 2025 season with a lot of question marks and as a fringe roster candidate. As the centerpiece of the return for All-Star closer Devin Williams (Nestor Cortes was always a short-term solution), the expectations for the rookie infielder seemed to be a bit too high.

One season later, and it's clear why the Milwaukee Brewers targeted Durbin in that trade. The 25-year-old emerged as the team's starting third baseman, accruing two Outs Above Average and five Defensive Runs Saved at the position. He was just as good at the plate, hitting .256/.334/.387 with 11 home runs and 18 steals, good for a 105 wRC+.

His well-rounded production (2.6 fWAR) was good enough to earn him third-place in National League Rookie of the Year voting, a sterling finish that portends a bright future for the right-handed hitter.

Speaking of his future, projections for the 2026 season have started to release, and it's clear that Durbin has the talent to stave off a sophomore slump.

FanGraphs' ZiPS, Steamer projections predict a bright future for Brewers' Caleb Durbin

FanGraphs has started to roll out their 2026 ZiPS projections, and right during the heart of the Winter Meetings, they released their full assessment of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Most projection systems are usually conservative in their view of the Brewers — something FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski, the creator of ZiPS, acknowledges in his article — though ZiPS has generally tended to favor their all-around contributors.

Durbin fits that mold, and his 2026 projections are roughly in line with his rookie-season production: a .249/.328/.383 triple-slash line, 10 home runs, 20 steals, and 2.5 fWAR. It does foretell of a drop-off in overall hitting production (99 OPS+), but that's a modest decline at most.

Of course, in an ideal world, Durbin would improve upon his debut campaign, as he's one of the best contact hitters in the sport; his whiff and strikeout rates both ranked above the 95th percentile league-wide in 2025.

For what it's worth, the 2026 Steamer projections are a little more optimistic on his bat, predicting a .258/.331/.395 batting line with a 105 wRC+. However, Durbin is only projected for 2.1 fWAR by Steamer, as it expects him to perform worse with the glove. Truly, Brewers players can't win with any prognosticator.

Still, these are just hypothetical models using available data to predict future outcomes. They can't foresee next-level breakouts any more than you or I. Hopefully, these systems are more accurately projecting Durbin's floor, rather than his ceiling.