Grading the Brewers' blockbuster Freddy Peralta trade with the New York Mets

Last night, Matt Arnold and his former boss David Stearns (pictured above) linked up for one of the biggest trades of the 2025-26 offseason. After an winter of rumors surrounding their ace, the Milwaukee Brewers agreed to send right-handers Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers to the New York Mets in exchange for top prospects Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat.

The writing had been on the wall for quite a while, with plenty of interest around the league making a Peralta deal feel inevitable over the past few weeks, but the matter of what return the Brewers would be able to secure for one year of the 2x All-Star remained unsettled. On Wednesday night, Milwaukee received an offer they liked and elected to part ways with Peralta one year before he was set to hit free agency.

Though Brewers fans had the offseason to wrap their heads around the idea of trading Peralta, and their trades of Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams in each of the last two offseasons prepared them for this feeling, it doesn't make it any easier to watch Peralta, who was the heart and soul of their pitching staff for the last two seasons, get traded to the Mets. Peralta was on the team for all seven of their playoff appearances in the last eight years, and will go down as a key piece of the Brewers' current Golden Age. Between his infectious smile, his excellent clubhouse presence, and the love that he showed Milwaukee over the last eight years, this will be one of the more difficult departures in recent Brewers history.

That said, this is something Brewers fans have grown accustomed to, and the result is those aforementioned seven playoff appearances in the last eight years. There's no denying that the strategy has led to success in recent history, far more success than the Brewers have had at any point in the history of their franchise. That strategy, however, still relies on them making good trades when they elect to part ways with their stars the year before they hit free agency. Let's take a look at how they did in this trade.

Grading the Brewers and Mets' returns in the Freddy Peralta blockbuster

Given the fact that three of the four players included in this deal (Williams, Sproat, and Myers) are under team control for at least the next five seasons (six in Williams and Sproat's cases), the final results of this trade won't be realized for quite some time. Even if Peralta puts together an All-Star campaign for the Mets in 2026, and Sproat and Williams get off to slow starts in their MLB careers, that doesn't mean the latter two can't surpass Peralta's value in the aggregate in future seasons. In fact, it would almost be shocking if they didn't.

Yes, Myers will absolutely add some value to the Mets' pitching staff as well, but in all likelihood, the combination of Williams and Sproat will accumulate more Wins Above Replacement for the Brewers than Peralta and Myers will for New York when all is said and done. That is a large reason for the following grades.

Brewers grade: B+

Mets grade: B-

At first glance, neither team did particularly badly in this trade, hence the "B" grades. All four players included are extremely talented -- Peralta's a proven All-Star, Myers has had his moments in the big leagues, and Williams and Sproat both have extremely high upsides. In many ways, this is a win-win trade; the Mets get the rotation upgrade they were searching for, and the Brewers continue to turn their soon-to-be-departing pieces into exciting young talent. In regard to why the Brewers earn the slight edge, well, let's get into it.

Freddy Peralta

Let's start with Peralta. The Brewers are selling high on Peralta. From 2022 through 2024, Peralta compiled 5.7 bWAR, and in 2025 alone, he was worth 5.5 bWAR. Baseball Reference's WAR model isn't necessarily the best indication of a starting pitcher's success, but Peralta's numbers back up the claim that 2025 was the best season of his career. Freddy posted career bests in ERA (2.70), and innings pitched (176.2), and missed out on his career high in strikeouts by just six punchouts. An expected ERA (xERA) that was more than half a run worse than his actual ERA indicates that there was some luck involved in Peralta's All-Star 2025 season. Peralta is a proven starter, and his numbers aren't likely to soon fall off a cliff, but it's more than reasonable to expect that he will be closer to the pitcher who averaged a 3.73 ERA from 2022-24 than the one who posted a 2.70 ERA in 2025.

On top of some expected light regression, the Mets traded for just one year of Peralta. Sure, they can offer him a contract extension, but any deal that's agreed upon doesn't change the calculus of this trade. New York absolutely acquired an ace yesterday, but expecting Peralta to be the same pitcher he was in 2025 during the lone season of control that the Brewers traded is a lofty assumption.

Tobias Myers

Moving on to Myers. His inclusion in this deal is the one thing keeping the Brewers from earning an "A" in this trade. No rumors of the Mets being interested in acquiring Myers or Milwaukee being willing to move him in a trade surfaced before yesterday's deal went down. However, after the initial shock of seeing his name being included in the trade subsided, the Brewers' willingness to part ways with the 27-year-old right-hander starts to make more sense.

On paper, Myers had an excellent rookie season. He made 25 starts, posted a 3.00 ERA, and was named the Brewers pitcher of the year by one publication. Then, in 2025, Myers encountered some obstacles. It started with a Spring Training oblique injury that delayed his start to the season and opened the door for other pitchers, Chad Patrick and Logan Henderson, to break through. When Myers did return, a slow start to his season left his role in question, and he was frequently shuttled back-and-forth between MLB and Triple-A. Though he redeemed himself with a productive stint in the big-league bullpen at the end of the season, it became clear that his inaugural campaign was more of a fluke than something that could be repeated year after year. The underlying numbers back that claim up.

In 2024, Myers xERA was more than a run worse than his actual ERA, and his only advanced metric that ranked in the 50th percentile or better was his walk rate. The story was much of the same in 2025, leaving Myers' role on the 2026 Brewers in question. In Reviewing the Brew's early projections of the Brewers' 2026 roster, Myers was expected to start the season in Triple-A with just one minor league option remaining. Though the potential remains, parting with Myers and his inconsistent track record, especially given how much other pitching depth the Brewers have, shouldn't be too much of a concern for Milwaukee.

Brandon Sproat

Turning to the Brewers' return. Though Sproat's surface-level numbers don't jump off the stat sheet, it's not difficult to see what excites the Brewers about the former second-round pick's profile. To be fair, let's first acknowledge those surface-level stats. After debuting on September 7 of last year, Sproat made four starts for the Mets and posted a 4.79 ERA. In Triple-A last year, he posted a 4.24 ERA in 25 starts, while striking out less than one batter per inning.

However, Sproat's enticing arsenal of pitches suggests he is due for far more success than he found in 2025, especially once he's under the guidance of the Brewers' excellent pitching department. First off, Sproat has a strong sinker which is a pitch the Brewers love and have had a great deal of success with in recent years. On top of that, his sinker, curveball, and sweeper are all plus offerings according to Stuff+ -- a metric that assigns a grade to pitches based on their velocity and movement. His overall Stuff+ score of 112 indicates that his repertoire as a whole is 12% better than the league-average pitcher. For reference, Peralta had a Stuff+ score of 102 last year.

Now, Stuff+ is by no means the best indicator of a pitcher's success, but it does suggest Sproat offers an excellent framework for the Brewers to build off of. Pair that with the fact that he's under team control for the next six seasons, and it's exciting to think about the pitcher that Sproat, who currently ranks as Baseball America's No. 81-ranked prospect in all of baseball, can become in the Brewers' organization.

Jett Williams

Speaking of highly ranked prospects, Williams checks in at No. 71 on Baseball America's highly-trusted rankings. MLB Pipeline is more bullish on his talent, ranking him at No. 30 on their list, but Pipeline has yet to update their rankings for the 2026 season, and it's likely Williams will slip a few spots. However, don't let that skew your beliefs of what Williams can do in the Brewers' organization. New York selected the versatile Williams out of high school with the 14th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, and so far, he's lived up to the hype; before his 21st birthday, Williams had already advanced to Triple-A.

In his healthy full seasons -- 2023 and 2025 -- Williams impressed with his blend of impressive athleticism and surprising pop given his 5'7" frame. In 2023, across three minor league levels, he crushed 43 extra-base hits in 121 games and stole 45 bases. Last year, in 130 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he slugged 58 extra-base hits and stole 34 bases. On top of that, he has the ability to play shortstop, second base, and all three outfield positions.

Williams fits the Brewers' mold, which has proven to be successful, to a tee. Many have described him as a right-handed Sal Frelick, and the comparison is sound. Williams' bat-to-ball skills aren't quite to Frelick's standard yet, but his power potential outweighs the Brewers' right fielder's. Williams isn't a lock to make the Opening Day roster, but he will no doubt contribute to the Brewers' big-league squad in some capacity in 2026.

The upshot

Acquiring six years of team control of two MLB-ready Top-100 prospects should never be overlooked; it's simply not something that happens often in today's game, given how valuable players are in the first six years of their MLB careers before they hit free agency. Those players are even more valuable for an organization like the Brewers, who have to scrutinize over every dollar they spend. Therefore, while it's absolutely difficult to part with Peralta, and Myers for that matter, this is an excellent return for Milwaukee.

The inclusion of Myers skews the Brewers' grade slightly, but given his shaky track record in the minor leagues and his lack of a clear path to playing time in Milwaukee, his involvement in this trade is one Brewers fans should be able to stomach. At the end of the day, it's a win for both teams, but if this trade does end up being lopsided one way or another, it's far more likely that it leans in Milwaukee's favor, which simply means that Sproat and Williams lived up to their potential.