MLB insider pours cold water on growing Brewers-Tarik Skubal trade rumor

Less than one month now remains before Major League Baseball's midseason trade deadline. With all but six teams still within five games of a playoff spot as play begins on July 6, it's not yet obvious exactly who will be selling and who will be buying at this year's deadline.

That said, with a six-game lead in the National League Central, and the second-best record in all of baseball behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Milwaukee Brewers are certain to once again make additions to their roster prior to the deadline on August 3. It's a position that the Brewers have grown accustomed to during their ongoing Golden Age. In fact, dating back to 2017, the Brewers have acted as buyers -- Josh Hader debacle aside -- at every midseason trade deadline for the last nine seasons and are almost certain to make that 10 in a few weeks' time.

While the Brewers' biggest deadline need heading into the weekend was another high-leverage reliever to pair with their trusted trio of Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, and Trevor Megill, the recurrence of Brandon Woodruff's shoulder inflammation may have changed their trade priorities. Regardless of Woodruff's recovery timeline, which has yet to be revealed, it's becoming clearer that the Brewers can't rely on their veteran right-hander to be healthy down the stretch in 2026, and may need to factor that into their trade deadline plans. If Woody does end up being healthy for the postseason, it's a huge bonus for the Brew Crew, but adding a third top-tier starter to their rotation to go along with Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison feels like a growing possibility after this weekend.

The top arm, and top player for that matter, available on the trade market is expected to be Detroit Tigers' ace Tarik Skubal, who, after winning the AL Cy Young in each of the last two seasons, will be a free agent after the 2026 campaign. Early trade speculation constantly linked Skubal to the Brewers, as MLB insiders want to see Milwaukee mortgage their future and go "all-in" to beat the Dodgers in the postseason this year.

However, avoiding "all-in" trades like the one that would be required to land Skubal is the exact reason the Brewers have remained competitive in each of the last 10 seasons. A trade for Skubal, though it would certainly propel Milwaukee into "World Series favorites" territory, never felt very likely, and this morning one MLB insider reiterated that point.

Ken Rosenthal's latest Tarik Skubal trade intel shouldn't come as a surprise to Brewers fans

In Ken Rosenthal's latest column for The Athletic, the MLB insider included troves of intel on the upcoming trade deadline, including several paragraphs on the Brewers' needs and plans. Included in his Brewers' analysis was the line, "the Brewers are unlikely to trade big prospects for a rental like Skubal, according to people briefed on their thinking."

While the statement may initially be disheartening to those hoping to see Skubal in a Brewers uniform by August 3, it shouldn't really come as too much of a surprise and it's important to notice the nuance included in Rosenthal's report. First of all, the word "unlikely" is carrying a great deal of weight in the sentence above. The Brewers, who rarely go "all-in" at the deadline, were always "unlikely" to trade for Skubal. Milwaukee's current roster construction strategy, brought on by an awareness that the financial disparity in MLB requires them to rely on younger players who are far less expensive than free agents, leads to the Brewers generally retaining their top prospects, knowing the surplus value they offer at the beginning of their careers will generally outweigh any rental they can acquire at the deadline.

Secondly, Rosenthal's source of "people briefed on their thinking" carries just enough validity for it to be included in his report, and far more ambiguity that should have readers questioning exactly where this information is coming from. The Brewers' front office is notoriously tight-lipped when it comes to their trade strategy, which, when paired with the strategic language Rosenthal uses to describe his source, makes it very unlikely this information is coming directly from a front office employee.

It's not likely the Brewers end up swinging a deal for Skubal, but that likelihood shouldn't be too impacted by Rosenthal's report. Milwaukee is never likely to trade top prospects for short-term help, but they've also never had a farm system as talented as the one they currently possess. However, the Brewers are far more likely to use that talented farm system to remain consistently competitive for the next several years than using it to go "all-in" on the 2026 campaign.

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