MLB insider's Brandon Woodruff contract projection should have Brewers fans hopeful

Much has been made about the Milwaukee Brewers' rotation picture heading into the 2025-26 offseason, and rightfully so. With an assembly of talented, inexperienced arms, an ace who could be traded before spring training, and two veterans set to become free agents when their mutual options are declined, there's plenty for Milwaukee's front office to sort through this offseason.

One of the two major questions facing Matt Arnold and company, with the other one being whether or not to trade ace Freddy Peralta, is how to construct a contract with long-time fan favorite Brandon Woodruff that works for both sides. As laid out in a past article on Reviewing the Brew, there are several avenues the Brewers could explore to retain Woodruff for the 2026 without him reaching free agency, but the most likely scenario is that Arnold and company will have to fend off other teams to keep Woody in Milwaukee for next season and beyond.

Assuming Woodruff does reach free agency, which would be the product of him simply rejecting his $20 million mutual option and turning down the qualifying offer should the Brewers extend one to him, it initially seemed like Milwaukee would be priced out of any attempt to retain the 32-year-old right-hander. However, one MLB insider projects Woody to command a salary this offseason that the Brewers could very much afford.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic projects Brandon Woodruff will earn a modest two-year deal this offseason

Former front office executive turned columnist for The Athletic, Jim Bowden, released his projections for the salaries and destinations of the top 50 MLB free agents for the 2025-26 season on Monday morning. The Brewers don't appear as a possible destination until the 25th ranked free agent -- a 36-year-old Chris Bassitt for whom Bowden projects a hefty two-year, $45 million salary -- which is fair given that Milwaukee rarely makes a run at a top-tier free agent.

After scrolling past a hypothetical reunion between Devin Williams -- Bowden's 35th ranked free agent -- and the Brewers, Milwaukee pops up again when their two departing veterans, Woodruff and José Quintana, appear on Bowden's list. Quintana (41) actually ranks higher than Woodruff (44), foreshadowing Bowden's lack of enthusiasm for Woodruff's market, which he believes will net the long-time Brewer a manageable two-year, $22 million contract.

There are several noteworthy aspects of Bowden's initial projection of Woodruff's free agent contract, starting with the length. An offseason ago, nine starting pitchers earned free agent contracts of three years or longer, and four of them were older than Woody will be this offseason. Bowden mentions the injury history with Woody, which, paired with the potential lockout looming in 2027, could be the reason for the shorter-term deal. Even still, if teams were willing to hand out three-year deals to names like Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, and Nathan Eovaldi last offseason, it's fair to assume that someone is willing to offer one to Woody this year.

Next is the dollar amount, which at an average annual value (AAV) of $11 million would hardly break the bank even for a cash-strapped team organization like the Brewers. $11 million is less than half of the AAV that Manaea and Eovaldi signed a season ago, and just more than half of the one Kikuchi signed. It's even less than the two-year deal that Shane Bieber signed with the Cleveland Guardians last offseason, and Bieber was expected to and did miss the first five months of the season.

A two-year $22 million deal is less than the one-year, $22.05 million qualifying offer that some are expecting the Brewers to extend to Woodruff shortly after the World Series ends.

It's certainly possible that the Brewers receive a "loyalty" discount in their negotiations with Woodruff, but even that is unlikely to result in a two-year, $22 million deal. In other words, if Woody is willing to accept the deal that Bowden projects, the Brewers should be all over it. Retaining a pitcher of Woodruff's caliber who has the type of impact that Woody has on the team's clubhouse for just $11 million a year over the next two seasons feels like a no-brainer.