Orioles-Rays blockbuster clouds Brewers' trade market for Freddy Peralta

The Milwaukee Brewers' biggest question mark this offseason remains who will be atop their starting rotation when the 2026 season rolls around. Immediately following the team's departure from the postseason, rumors started to circle about Milwaukee's front office's willingness to field calls on their ace, Freddy Peralta, which should come as no surprise to Brewers fans, as the front office not fielding calls would mean they aren't properly doing their jobs.

At various points throughout the offseason so far, the likelihood of a Peralta trade has wavered. When Brandon Woodruff accepted the qualifying offer, it appeared as if the Brewers were "running it back" in 2026 with a similar group that advanced to the NLCS in 2025. Then, reports that Milwaukee was concerned about payroll led some to believe that a Peralta trade was inevitable, but Brewers fans know they don't trade their stars before their final year of team control for the impact it has on their payroll in the next season. However, once the price of free agent starting pitchers was revealed, the likelihood of a Peralta trade seemed to rise again. Teams not wanting to pay the premium prices for a top-tier free agent starter would be more likely to overpay with prospects or MLB-ready players for Peralta and his reasonable $8 million salary.

Now, a new wrinkle has been added to the saga. After the Winter Meetings, the Baltimore Orioles, who had just signed Pete Alonso to a sizable five-year, $155 million contract, but were still in need of starting pitching, emerged as the favorite to land the Brewers' ace, just as they did when they traded for Corbin Burnes back in 2024. However, just moments ago, the Orioles landed a different cost-controlled ace, decreasing their chances of trading for Peralta this offseason. That said, Baltimore's blockbuster didn't completely tank the odds of the Brewers trading Peralta this winter. In fact, it might have raised them as it revealed just how much teams are willing to give up in a trade package for a cheap ace.

Orioles give up massive haul of prospects for Rays' starter Shane Baz, setting Peralta's trade market while likely taking themselves out of the running

On Friday, just hours after the Tampa Bay Rays completed a deal sends second baseman Brandon Lowe to the Pittsburgh Pirates, they agreed to trade starter Shane Baz and his three years of team control to the Orioles in exchange for four prospects and a Competitive Balance Round A pick, as initially reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN.

It's a significant package of prospects. All four of them are among MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Orioles prospects, and Slater de Brun and Cadine Bodine are both former first-round picks. Michael Forret dominated in High-A and Double-A last year, and could crack the Rays' big-league roster at some point this season. Meanwhile, Overn is one of the fastest prospects in baseball, and with 13 homers in 114 games a season ago, there's a lot to like in his profile. Add to that a Competitive Balance Round A pick and the bonus pool money that accompanies it, and this looks like a very good trade for the Rays.

Baz, who missed nearly two full seasons from July 2022 to May 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, had somewhat of a concerning 2025 season. Though his 4.87 ERA was artificially high, his expected ERA of 3.85 still doesn't scream "ace" in the way that the trade package Baltimore gave up to acquire him does. Yes, there's plenty to be encouraged by in his profile including an overall Pitching+ score of 107, deeming him 7% better than the average MLB pitcher, but that's not quite enough to justify the trade package that Baltimore gave up to acquire him.

Meanwhile, though Peralta would be just a one-year rental, he's much more of a sure thing than Baz in 2026, meaning he could command a comparable trade package, depending on what positions the Brewers prioritize in a hypothetical deal; if they elect to target MLB-ready players, it's likely the return doesn't look quite as overwhelming as if they are willing to be paid in prospect capital.

Therefore, while a serious suitor for Peralta's services was likely taken off the board when the Orioles opted to add Baz in a blockbuster with the Rays, it's possible that today's trade is making the Brewers' front office encouraged about the type of return they could get for their ace. In that way, the Baz deal actually might have increased the chances of a Peralta trade this winter.