Pat Murphy faces familiar Game 3 starter decision in Brewers' NLCS rematch with Dodgers

During the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres' NLDS matchup, there was much debate about whether Pat Murphy should deploy right-hander Dustin May or southpaw Robert Gasser, who despite logging starts in each of the last three MLB seasons still qualifies as a rookie due to limited service time, as their Game 3 starting pitcher.

Several factors amplified the significance of this decision, including the NLDS being a best-of-five series in which the Brewers were hoping to avoid playing in a winner-takes-all Game 5 for the second consecutive year. The Padres’ right-handed-heavy lineup, featuring several hitters who excel against left-handed pitching, also played a role. Additionally, pitching splits favored May, who has historically performed well against San Diego, but notably Gasser’s strong finish to the regular season gave him momentum heading into the postseason.

Murphy ultimately prioritized postseason experience, turning to May for Game 3, which was their first game on the road of the series, before giving the ball to Gasser for Game 4. In their outings, May pitched three innings, allowing two runs, while Gasser delivered four innings and surrendered just one run.

Now in their NLCS rematch with the Dodgers, a best-of-seven series where using four starting pitchers is more common, Murphy’s pitching staff is well-rested, with Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson lined up to start Games 1 and 2. However, beyond the first two games, Murphy once again faces the same decision of who to start in Game 3. Will he stick with the strategy he used in the NLDS, or switch things up after Gasser out-pitched May against the Padres?

Brewers' Game 3 starter decision between Dustin May and Robert Gasser could come down to results in Games 1 and 2

Looking at the numbers, May, a former third-round pick by Los Angeles who spent five and a half big-league seasons with the Dodgers, historically has had good success at Dodger Stadium, owning a career 3.20 ERA over 31 games and 152 innings pitched. He's faced his former team just once, covering six innings of three-run ball earlier this year.

Meanwhile, Gasser has faced the Dodgers twice in his career, with both appearances coming in 2026. On May 23, he allowed four runs over 4.1 innings in Milwaukee. However, in August, he delivered a stronger performance at Dodger Stadium, surrendering just two runs over 6.1 innings while striking out seven batters.

If we had to predict how Murphy will deploy his starters, it’s reasonable to expect him to stick with the same approach, as logically using a veteran for the first game of the series on the road while allowing the young Gasser to observe Game 3 before getting a shot afterwards, makes sense. That said, both pitchers operated on short leashes in their previous outings, and that will likely remain the case the next time through the rotation. Additionally, for May’s start, a left-handed opener would also be a plausible option, as Milwaukee has frequently used this strategy against Los Angeles in the postseason to help neutralize the Dodgers’ left-handed bats at the top of the lineup: Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman.

Which starter ultimately gets the start in Game 3 could come down to how the Brewers use their pitching staff in Games 1 and 2. The Brewers clearly didn't feel too comfortable having May face the Padres' lineup a full two times through, but were more willing to give Gasser a longer look. Therefore, if Games 1 and 2 tax the Brewers' bullpen, maybe Gasser gets the nod in Game 3 and if Milwaukee has a fully rested 'pen for their first game at Dodger Stadium, perhaps May once again gets the ball in Game 3.

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