Brewers: 5 Junior College Pitchers The Brewers Should Target In 2023 MLB Draft
It's not a question of if the Brewers draft a JuCo arm this year, it's a question of who and when
While most fans think of David Stearns or Matt Arnold as the decision-makers in the Brewers front office, when it comes to the MLB Draft, they are not the ones in charge. The man in charge of the Draft is the scouting director, Tod Johnson.
The Brewers promoted Tod Johnson to the scouting director job in 2016 and his first Draft class was 2017.
In every single draft since Johnson took over, with the exception of the shortened 5 round 2020 Draft, the Brewers have selected one of the top Junior College pitchers in the entire class. They have done so with great success.
It started with Bowden Francis in the 7th round in 2017, then Aaron Ashby in 2018, Antoine Kelly in 2019, Logan Henderson and Carlos Rodriguez in 2021, and Jacob Misiorowski and Tyler Woessner in 2022.
It stands to reason the Brewers will continue this trend in 2023 and select one of the top junior college pitchers in the country in the first few rounds. Who could it be?
Here are the top ranked JuCo arms in this year's Draft class that should intrigue the Brewers.
Brewers Junior College Draft Target #1: LHP Kyle Carr, Palomar JC
Kyle Carr is the highest rated JuCo arm on both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America, coming in at 174 overall on Pipeline and 158 on BA.
Carr can run his fastball up to 97 MPH and has an athletic delivery. He dominated for Palomar this year with 111 strikeouts and just 19 walks in 78 IP. He'll need to develop some consistency with his secondary pitches, but that's something the Brewers have shown a real knack for being able to develop.
Carr has swing and miss stuff and the potential to add more velocity as he matures. He can spin the ball well and Draft analyst Joe Doyle writes that Carr "should be an appealing option to analytically-driven teams". The Brewers qualify as one of those teams.
Don't be surprised if the Brewers select Carr somewhere in the 3-5 round range.
Brewers Junior College Draft Target #2: LHP Christian Oppor, Gulf Coast State
The Wisconsin kid, Christian Oppor, could find himself selected by his hometown team as one of the top junior college talents in the country. Oppor found himself selected in the 11th round of last year's draft out of high school by the Oakland A's but chose to go to school. Because of the return of "draft and follows", since Oppor went to a JuCo school, the A's can still sign him for up to $225k before the Draft begins.
It's expected that Oppor would command more than that $225k, so he's not expected to sign with the A's and again be available in the Draft this year where the Brewers could look to select him.
Oppor is an athletic and still raw project on the mound, but one the Brewers could look to take on. His fastball can reach 98 MPH with some movement. He didn't have the greatest season at Gulf Coast State this year, however. There's a lot of upside if he can refine his secondary pitches and the Brewers have a history of doing that. He's also likely to be a Day 2 selection this year.
Brewers Junior College Draft Target #3: LHP Carson Dorsey, Gulf Coast State
Another southpaw from Gulf Coast State is on this list. Carson Dorsey also fits the typical profile the Brewers like in their pitchers. He had a strong season for the Commodores, posting a 2.43 ERA in 66.2 IP with 99 Ks.
Dorsey has big stuff with a mid-90s fastball and a 12-6 curveball. He also has a slider he mixes in and there's room for those pitches to improve as he develops although they're already really good. He's another athletic arm on the mound.
In Doyle's scouting report on Dorsey, the metrics on his pitches "really sing", which again is something the Brewers tend to target not only in JuCo arms, but i any pitcher they're interested in.
Brewers Junior College Draft Target #4: RHP Gavin Adams, Indian River State JC
Gavin Adams is another potential Day 2 selection that checks a lot of the boxes the Brewers like in a JuCo arm. Great athleticism? Check. Big fastball? Check. Ability to spin breaking balls? Check.
Like most young arms like this, there's a lot of development and projection ahead for Gavin Adams. He struggles with control and will need to refine his secondary pitches, but there's a lot of upside for the Brewers pitching lab to unlock if they get him in there.
He's a big 6'3" righty with great raw stuff that can be molded into a major league pitcher eventually. It's the kind of project we've seen Milwaukee take on before.
Brewers Junior College Draft Target #5: RHP Marty Gair, Florida Southwestern JC
Marty Gair posted a 1.75 ERA with a 13.0 K/9 this year for Florida Southwestern, the same school the Brewers selected Carlos Rodriguez from two years ago. Gair has the prototypical size you like to see from a starter on the mound at 6'6" and 230 pounds.
Gair's fastball sits in the mid-90s but looks faster than that and gets double-plus grades. He also tunnels his curveball extremely well off his fastball but still needs some refinement. Gair has a good feel for spinning the ball and has the ingredients the Brewers love to work with.
Command is a major problem with Gair that will need to be addressed. If he can throw more strikes, there's some big upside here and perhaps the Brewers will want to take on that challenge.
It's not a matter of "if" the Brewers will select a Junior College pitcher in the 2023 Draft, it's a matter of "who" and "when". None of the top JuCo arms are likely to force their way into the top two rounds so we won't see any of them on Day 1 of the Draft, but once Day 2 gets rolling, keep an eye on these five names going to the Brewers.