Brewers: Everything Fans Need To Know About The Brewers 2023-24 Offseason

Disappointment yet again. The Milwaukee Brewers suffered yet another early playoff exit, leaving a bitter taste in the mouth as the offseason begins, and what an offseason this is slated to be.

The Brewers will enter the 2023-24 offseason with several question marks, not the least of which being what does the future hold for Craig Counsell. It's not a matter of the team looking to move on from Counsell after four straight first round playoff exits, but rather the exact opposite. Does Counsell want to move on from the Brewers?

On top of the managerial question, the Brewers have already lost co-ace Brandon Woodruff for all of 2024, so how can they fill the big void left in the rotation without him?

Which Brewers players are slated to be free agents this winter? Who's eligible for raises in arbitration? Which players have contract options for next year? Who is Rule 5 Draft eligible? What are the positions of need for GM Matt Arnold to address? What could the payroll look like?

That's a lot of questions and we'll be looking to answer them all in one place, right here.

In previewing the 2023-24 Milwaukee Brewers offseason, we'll look at the Brewers free agents, option decisions, arbitration class, positions of need, and more.

The Brewers have a lot of work ahead of them to navigate this offseason full of question marks. How can they build a team that will advance beyond the first round of the playoffs in 2024? We saw last year in Matt Arnold's first offseason at the helm that he's willing to make some out-of-the-box moves to improve the roster.

Last offseason was full of trades to reshape this team. Will this offseason have more of the same? Let's dive into the state of the Brewers as the offseason begins.

Brewers Free Agents (9)

Jesse Winker, Carlos Santana, Victor Caratini, Josh Donaldson, Julio Teheran, Darin Ruf, Colin Rea, Eric Lauer, Brian Anderson

The Brewers have a decent sized free agent class this offseason. Some players were given a headstart on free agency. Brian Anderson was DFAed in the final week of the season and elected free agency while Eric Lauer was outrighted off the 40 man and also elected free agency.

Darin Ruf had a very short stint as a healthy player on the Brewers, messed up his knee colliding with a tarp a few games into his Milwaukee tenure, and was on the IL the rest of the season. He's not expected to be brought back, but there are some available at bats at first base, so anything is possible with Ruf.

Josh Donaldson and Julio Teheran were in-season additions that played some big roles. Donaldson is not expected to return to Milwaukee in 2024 but Julio Teheran could possibly come back. Woodruff's injury opens opportunity in the rotation and GM Matt Arnold stated they would aggressively seek pitching depth this winter. Teheran came up big when the Brewers needed him most and he could possibly return on a one year deal for next year.

The same could be said for Colin Rea. His surface numbers may appear ugly, but Rea was a big piece of this pitching staff when injuries ravaged the rotation. He consistently kept the Brewers in games and ate up innings, and there's value in that even if he's not a Brandon Woodruff-level pitcher. Rea is likely in line for a big league deal this winter and the Brewers could bring him back.

Victor Caratini was the Crew's backup catcher and in a free agent market that's devoid of many starting options, Caratini could find some opportunity for more playing time this offseason. The Brewers like Caratini and he was Corbin Burnes' personal catcher most of the year. The Brewers can find another backup option behind William Contreras elsewhere if Caratini's price gets too high. But if Caratini can't find a starting job on the open market, there's a chance he could return to Milwaukee.

Jesse Winker should not, under any circumstances, return to the Brewers in 2024. They tried with Winker, it didn't work, and both sides need to move on. Perhaps Winker was injured most of the year and that is what contributed to his poor performance, but let him try to prove he's healthy and a capable hitter again elsewhere.

Carlos Santana is a quality veteran that provided a good boost for the Brewers at the Trade Deadline. It's likely he will try to continue playing in 2024 and while the Brewers may have some opportunity at first base, it's entirely likely he doesn't return to Milwaukee in 2024. There's a semi-decent chance he'll come back, but that depends on which direction the Brewers want to go at first base.

Brewers Contract Options (4)

Mark Canha, Wade Miley, Andrew Chafin, Justin Wilson

These players could possibly join that previous list of free agents, and at least two of them probably will. The Brewers have four contract option decisions to make this offseason, three club options and one mutual option.

Let's get the obvious ones out of the way. Andrew Chafin's club option is going to be declined. He was not a trusted arm for Craig Counsell down the stretch, did not make the playoff roster, and certainly has not shown that he'd be worth the $7.25MM that his option is worth for 2024. The Brewers will take the $750k buyout on Chafin and cut him loose.

Also, it's highly likely the Brewers decline the option on Justin Wilson. They signed him as a free agent, knowing he'd return from injury in July. On the day he was activated, Wilson injured his lat warming up in the bullpen and missed the entire season. The Brewers might try to bring Wilson back, hoping he'd be healthy in 2024, but not on his $2.5MM option. They'll take the $150k buyout.

Now let's look at the tougher decisions.

Soon to be 37 year old Wade Miley was a valuable veteran presence in the Brewers rotation this year. He was on the verge of retiring but the Brewers brought him back to Milwaukee and he showed he still has some gas left in the tank. Miley's option is for $10MM, which is not a small amount of money, with a $1MM buyout.

To complicate matters, Miley's option is a mutual option, meaning both the team and player have to exercise it. Mutual options are rarely exercised. The Brewers may not want to pay such a high salary for Miley, opting to find similar production from someone who will cost less. Or Miley could look to the open market and try to find a team that will see his strong 2023 season and believe he's worth more than $10MM. Miley is very comfortable in Milwaukee and the Brewers like him a lot, so perhaps he could return. There's a strong chance it won't be on his mutual option, but the Brewers could do a lot worse for $10MM on the starting pitching market.

Mark Canha has a club option for 2024 that's valued at $11.5MM with a $2MM buyout, essentially making it a $9.5MM decision for the Brewers. Initially after acquiring Canha, the Brewers likely planned on declining his option, but Canha was arguably the Crew's best hitter down the stretch and proved to be a valuable player.

Canha is versatile and productive at the plate. His first base experience makes him a really good fit on this Brewers team that needs an answer at the position. For the price, Canha is likely to give the Brewers the best bang for their buck among the options on the market. It's likely the Brewers are leaning towards picking up Canha's option for 2024, solving one of their big needs early in the offseason. However with high prices in the arbitration class, the Brewers may need to trim payroll wherever they can.

Brewers Positions Of Need

With the "dust settled" on the players leaving the roster or potentially leaving the roster, now let's get into the holes that remain for the front office to address in the free agent and trade markets.

1. Starting pitching

Brandon Woodruff's injury ending his 2024 season before it could start was no doubt an awful break for him and the Brewers. One silver lining from this news though is that learning of this so early allows the Brewers to plan around his injury accordingly. When they lost Woodruff for four months mid-season, they had to scramble to fill the rotation because they were counting on Woodruff being healthy. Now, they can put together a plan to more adequately fill the rotation.

Brewers GM Matt Arnold publicly stated his desire to add to his pitching depth this offseason and that was even before Woodruff's injury. The healthy, guaranteed returning starting pitchers on the roster are Burnes, Houser, and Freddy Peralta. Currently 4th on the depth chart is Janson Junk, who made just one MLB start in 2023.

Wade Miley, Colin Rea, and Julio Teheran are all candidates to return from the 2023 team but there's no guarantee any of them are back and if they don't return, the Brewers will need to bring in pitchers to fill those spots.

Milwaukee is full of pitching prospects in the high levels of the minors. Carlos Rodriguez and Robert Gasser are two pitchers who could earn rotation spots, but the Brewers shouldn't go into 2024 with them as the only plan. They'll get innings no matter what.

Michael Lorenzen, Frankie Montas, James Paxton, and Hyun-Jin Ryu are potential free agent options for the Brewers to consider.

2. Third Base

When asked about the position at his end of season press conference, Brewers GM Matt Arnold named Andruw Monasterio and Tyler Black as options at third base in 2024. There's certainly room for an addition at the hot corner. Monasterio had a solid rookie season but lacks power and Tyler Black, a top prospect, hasn't even made his MLB debut yet.

The long term plan at the position is likely Tyler Black, but the Brewers will likely be on the lookout for some veteran insurance at the position anyway. Black may or may not be on the Opening Day roster and rookies always have their ups and downs. A veteran insurance policy similar to Brian Anderson may be a smart play for Milwaukee.

The Brewers won't be buying in the Jeimer Candelario/Matt Chapman level of the market though. Stopgaps like Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Donovan Solano, and Justin Turner are potential free agent targets for Milwaukee.

3. First Base

Yet again, first base is on the Brewers position of needs list. Rowdy Tellez lost his starting job and is staring at a likely non-tender. Carlos Santana is a free agent. If Mark Canha's club option isn't picked up, you're potentially looking at Owen Miller as the top option on the depth chart. That's hardly an ideal scenario.

The Brewers could solve this need by simply picking up Canha's option and plan on putting him at first base everyday. He has the outfield versatility in case he's needed out there but fits perfectly in the lineup at first base. His production this year and what he's done for his entire career show that he's an above-average hitter and he'd be an immediate solution for 2024.

If the Brewers decide to move on from Canha, Rhys Hoskins is maybe the only everyday starter quality first base option on the free agent market that's potentially within the Brewers price range. The trade market could be more fruitful, but there's no guarantee of that, especially if the Mets decide to keep Pete Alonso. The smart play is keeping Canha and solving this need quickly.

Brewers Rule 5 Draft Eligibles

Carlos D. Rodriguez, Jeferson Quero, Eduardo Garcia, Bradley Blalock, Evan McKendry, Freddy Zamora, Zavier Warren, Adam Seminaris

With so many open 40 man roster spots, the Brewers will have some room to add some players to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, held at the Winter Meetings in December. Minor leaguers who have been in the pros a certain number of years are eligible to be selected by other teams if they aren't added to the 40 man roster.

There are many more players in the Brewers farm system that are Rule 5 eligible than the ones named above, but most face zero risk of being selected by other teams in the MLB phase or of being protected on the 40 man.

The top Brewers prospect eligible this winter is catcher Jeferson Quero. He's the Crew's #2 prospect and just turned 21 years old after a fantastic season in Double-A Biloxi. He's advanced enough in the minors, highly touted enough, and plays a premium position to where if left unprotected some other team could try to carry him on their big league roster in 2024. Quero seems like a clear call for the Brewers to add to the 40 man roster to protect him from Rule 5.

Quero is the only guarantee among this group to be protected. This is the Rule 5 year for 2020 draftees and that was just a 5 round draft, so there are fewer players that need to be protected this year around baseball. Freddy Zamora and Zavier Warren are the two remaining Brewers 2020 Draftees that remain in the organization and aren't already on the 40 man. Zamora could be protected but Warren hasn't played well and likely will be left off the 40 man.

Carlos D. Rodriguez, the outfielder, could be worthy of a spot, but it's a crowded outfield group already on the Brewers 40 man. He hit .291 in Double-A this year, so some team could be willing to give him a shot if the Brewers won't protect him.

Bradley Blalock and Evan McKendry are pitchers that were acquired at the Trade Deadline this year. McKendry is in Triple-A and stands a solid chance of being added to the 40 man or selected by another team. Given the Brewers need for pitching depth, adding McKendry is a strong possibility. Blalock didn't make it above High-A and didn't pitch well after coming over to the Brewers. He likely won't be protected.

Brewers Payroll Outlook

The Brewers had an estimated $126MM payroll in 2023. The payroll was around $137MM in 2022. It's likely the Brewers 2024 payroll will be kept around a similar range. It may be slightly higher than 2023 but it's unlikely to see Milwaukee make a massive increase in payroll this winter and spend big.

The Brewers have big arbitration raises to pay out to core players. If Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames are retained and sign to their projected arbitration salaries, that's $39.1MM in payroll, plus Yelich's $26MM means over $65MM in payroll will be taken up by just four players.

Let's assume the Brewers pick up Canha's option. His salary, plus the already guaranteed salaries for Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby take the payroll up to over $83MM already.

Adding in the rest of the arbitration salaries, assuming non-tenders for Tellez and Toro, takes the Brewers payroll up to $101MM. Factor in the rest of the pre-arbitration players to fill out the roster and the Brewers are looking at approximately $115MM in payroll obligations for 2024 without making one single addition. This is also excluding Wade Miley, who has a $10MM option that may or may not be picked up.

This gives the Brewers just about $11MM of room until they reach the 2023 payroll total, which isn't much at all. If the Brewers do intent to keep Burnes and Adames instead of trading them, then they are going to have to increase payroll for 2024. We could see Milwaukee push to a $130-140MM range for payroll, but it's unlikely they push any higher than that, barring a complete change in philosophy on spending.

That just leaves the Brewers with likely $15-25MM of payroll space to work with heading into the offseason. They could always look to trade from the fringes of their big league roster to offset salary but there's not much fat to trim while still remaining a competitive team in the NL Central.

Don't expect the Brewers to be big players at the top of the free agent market given their payroll condition. Similar to last offseason, we could be seeing trades as the main strategy for improving the roster for 2024.