Checking in on 5 bold predictions for the Brewers 2024 season

Every year before the regular season, I make a string of bold predictions for what we'll see out of the Brewers that year. Some years I hit on a couple of them, sometimes, they don't even come close to happening.

The 2024 season was no different. Back on March 26th, I published my five bold predictions for this season. Now that we've reached the All Star Break and are into the second half, it's a good time to check in on how these bold predictions are progressing.

Bold Prediction #:1 Rhys Hoskins leads the NL in home runs, wins Comeback Player of the Year

Progress report: Not looking good

Rhys Hoskins is among team leaders in home runs, but he's suffered a bit of a power outage since a hamstring injury in mid-late May. Ever since he's returned, he has looked nothing like the player he was before the injury.

Prior to that, Hoskins was looking great. He had gotten into a good groove at the plate, was hitting for power, doing all the things that the Brewers expected him to do when they signed him this offseason. Missing nearly three weeks and then several weeks of struggles at the plate since though have sapped his chase for the NL home run lead. He'll really need a strong second half to make that charge and even hold off Willy Adames for most home runs on the team.

Comeback player of the year perhaps could still be in play, since he is coming off that ACL tear. A strong second half could push him to that award, since there are limited contenders for that kind of award. But if he keeps hitting like this, he won't win that either.

Bold Prediction #2: Trevor Megill steps up to be the closer in Devin Williams' absence

Progress report: Nailed it

Right on the money. Many were thinking that Abner Uribe or Joel Payamps would secure the closer's job while Devin Williams was out for the first 3-4 months of the year, but I felt it would be Trevor Megill and that has been the case.

Pat Murphy did give Uribe and Payamps chances in that role, but when they scuffled, Megill took over and hasn't given it up since. He's tallied 18 saves in 20 opportunities with a 1.99 ERA.

Nailed it.

Bold Prediction #3: Aaron Ashby and Robert Gasser step up to be the most trusted arms behind Freddy Peralta

Progress report: Was trending half-right, until injury

There were a lot of question marks about this rotation heading into the season and frankly, there still are now. For the first time in several years, the top three pitchers in the Brewers rotation was an unknown. How it would all shake out was anyone's guess.

My guess was Robert Gasser and Aaron Ashby would step up to round out that top three. Things were looking good for Gasser being that trusted starter through his first five big league starts. He had earned the chances and was pitching extremely well. Then his elbow started to hurt. Three medical opinions later, he's out for the year with Tommy John surgery. He was probably the top trusted guy behind Freddy for a few starts there, at least.

Ashby, meanwhile, has been disappointing. The numbers have been really bad down in Triple-A and he's only gotten a few chances in the majors this year. The Brewers want to continue to build him back up after shoulder surgery and he's going to need to get more time past that surgery before he's right again, it appears.

I did say in my prediction that it was definitely possible the two best arms behind Peralta wouldn't be in the Opening Day rotation. Tobias Myers wasn't in that group and he's certainly stepped forward to be one of Pat Murphy's most trusted arms. Myers and Colin Rea are clearly the two top starters behind Peralta in this rotation.

Bold Prediction #4: Jackson Chourio struggles in April, but gets hot in May and never looks back, wins NL Rookie of the Year

Progress report: It was actually June

One month off. I predicted Chourio would just have one month of struggles before showing everyone why he was the top rated prospect in baseball and worthy of his 8 year, $82MM contract, but it ended up taking two. Since June 1st, Chourio is hitting .303/.359/.471 with eight doubles, four homers, and a .829 OPS.

In that time, he has seen his season batting average rise from .207 to .249 after Saturday's three hit game.

I predicted Chourio will finish the year in the .270-.275 range for batting average with 20+ homers and 30+ steals. The batting average is rising to that level and if he keeps this up over the final 2.5 months, he could easily get to hitting .270-.275. He has nine home runs, which has him close to on pace for 20 homers on the year, and he's at 12 stolen bases, which is close to pace but still a little behind for 30 steals.

As for the Rookie of the Year race, it's going to take a strong second half for him to win that award, there are some good contenders like Shota Imanaga and Jackson Merrill.

Overall, it's looking pretty good for the Chourio prediction.

Bold Prediction #5: The Brewers eliminate the Cubs in the Wild Card round, finally ending their streak of first round playoff exits

Progress report: Will the Cubs even make it?

There's really only so much of a progress report you can give in July on a postseason prediction, but the Brewers are sitting in first place in the NL Central and are in prime position to win the division and make the playoffs yet again.

This time, they'll have manager Pat Murphy at the helm and they'll be looking to make it past the first round. The Cubs seemed like a very possible opponent in that first round. However, after a rough first half, the Cubs, led by former Brewers manager Craig Counsell, are on the outside looking in at the playoff picture.

There's still a lot of baseball left, but things are also trending in a solid direction for this prediction.