How The Brewers Can Win In The 2024 MLB Draft Lottery Without Even Being In It

The Brewers can move up in tonight's MLB Draft Lottery, even though they aren't in it
2023 MLB Draft presented by Nike
2023 MLB Draft presented by Nike / Alika Jenner/GettyImages

At MLB's annual Winter Meetings, the Draft Lottery for the next year's Draft takes place. The Milwaukee Brewers were participants in the first ever lottery, but ultimately did not move up in the Draft order.

Yet, somehow, this year, despite being a playoff team and thus not eligible for the Draft Lottery, the Milwaukee Brewers stand a very good chance of moving up in the 2024 MLB Draft order.

The Brewers currently hold the 20th selection in the 2024 MLB Draft, and only the top 18 selections are eligible for the top six picks in the lottery. By the end of Tuesday's results, the Milwaukee Brewers are likely to have moved up a couple of spots.

The Milwaukee Brewers could move up two or three spots in the 2024 MLB Draft order based on the results from the MLB Draft Lottery.

The reason the Brewers can move up is because of luxury tax penalties on three non-playoff teams in front of them. The Mets, Padres, and Yankees all exceeded the second level of the luxury tax and as a result, their top pick is dropped 10 spots, unless they are awarded a top-six lottery selection. The Mets currently are slated for the 7th pick, while the Padres are 15th, and the Yankees 16th.

The most the Brewers can ascend is three spots. Two things need to happen in tonight's MLB Draft Lottery for that dream scenario to come true.

1. None of the Mets, Padres, or Yankees win a lottery pick
2. Another team from behind the Mets that's not the Padres or Yankees DOES win a lottery pick

The Padres and Yankees have very low odds to win a lottery pick, meaning there's a good chance their picks will be dropped 10 spots, which will allow the Brewers to move up two spots in the Draft order. But the Mets are currently 7th in the order and if they're dropped 10 spots to 17th, that will hold the Brewers back at 18. However, if another team from behind the Mets jumps them in the Lottery, that pushes the Mets back to 8th, which will then drop to 18th, allowing the Brewers to jump ahead.

If any one of the Pirates, Guardians, Tigers, Red Sox, Giants, Reds, Cubs, or Mariners wins a top six pick, the Brewers will move up three spots in the Draft order. Last year, the Twins jumped from 13th all the way up to 5th from the Draft Lottery, so it's certainly possible. The Nationals, at 10th overall, are ineligible to win a lottery pick, so that doesn't help Milwaukee's odds of their dream scenario happening.

If one of the Yankees or Padres are one of the teams that wins a lottery pick and the Mets don't, the Brewers will end up moving up two spots. If the Mets win a lottery pick and neither the Yankees or Padres do, the Brewers move up two spots. If two of those three teams win a lottery pick, the Brewers move up one spot. If all three win a lottery pick, the Brewers stay put at 20th.

You may be wondering: Why does moving up two or three spots matter so much? The answer is in the Bonus Pool. Last year, the 20th overall pick carried a slot value of $3,746,000 while the 17th pick had a slot value of $4,169,700. That's a difference of $423,700, which is the equivalent of a 5th round pick's value. Keep in mind, last year the Brewers stretched every dollar of their bonus pool, with only $29 total left available.

An extra $400k or so in the Bonus Pool can go a long ways, not to mention picking earlier gives the Brewers access to some talent that may have otherwise been off the board by the 20th pick.

When you're watching the Draft Lottery tonight, which is at 4:30 CT on MLB Network, root for two things. Root for the Mets, Padres, and Yankees to NOT win a lottery pick, and root for one of the Pirates, Guardians, Tigers, Red Sox, Giants, Reds, Cubs, or Mariners TO win a lottery pick. Well, maybe not the Cubs, but they would do the trick.