Previewing the Milwaukee Brewers' 2026 arbitration cases

Major League Baseball's next offseason deadline is fast approaching. Prior to 7:00 p.m. CT on Thursday, January 8, teams and their arbitration-eligible players, who they have agreed to tender contracts to for the 2026 season, have to exchange salary figures (the deadline to agree to contracts is 12:00 p.m. CT on the same day). If the players and their teams can't agree on contracts prior to the deadline, and can't reach an agreement in the weeks after the deadline passes, the two parties turn to third-party arbitrators to determine what the players' salary will be for the upcoming season. If an arbitration hearing should occur, the final numbers that each side submitted prior to this Thursday's deadline are the salary figures that the arbitrator has to decide between.

Ideally, both sides agree on a salary figure before having to engage in an arbitration hearing, which occasionally can become quite contentious. With the player present, the team is arguing why they aren't worth the salary they proposed, which understandably is difficult for the player to hear. The system is by no means perfect.

This year, the Milwaukee Brewers have six players who are eligible for arbitration and therefore have to submit their final salary figures before Thursday's deadline. Milwaukee's number was at seven before the team agreed to a one-year contract with Jake Bauers back in November to avoid the arbitration process altogether. Additionally, the team traded away one arbitration-eligible player, Nick Mears, this offseason, but received another one, Ángel Zerpa, in return. Zerpa joins Brice Turang and Garrett Mitchell as the Brewers who are eligible for arbitration for the first time in their careers. Trevor Megill and William Contreras are entering their second year of arbitration eligibility. Andrew Vaughn is entering his third year of arbitration, but remains under team control for the 2027 season, as revealed by team insider Adam McCalvy halfway through the 2025 season.

Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Matt Schwartz has perfected an arbitration salaries projection model over the last 15 years, and it has become one of the most trusted systems in the industry. Let's take a closer look at each of the Brewers' arbitration-eligible players and why they might earn more or less than MLB Trade Rumors' projection.

Previewing the Milwaukee Brewers' 2026 arbitration cases

C William Contreras (MLBTR projected salary: $11.1 million)

The Brewers have already, to some extent, revealed how much they expect their All-Star catcher, William Contreras, to make in the arbitration process this winter. After declining Contreras' $12 million club option at the beginning of the offseason, which led to them paying their backstop a buyout of $100,000, the Brewers' front office essentially admitted that they don't expect the arbitration process to lead to a salary of $11.9 million or more. MLBTR reiterates that belief, which is a result of Contreras' small step backwards at the plate in 2025. After three consecutive seasons with an OPS+ of 124 or higher, had Contreras posted another similar season last year, it's likely his $12 million option would have been far more appealing to the Brewers' front office.

That said, Contreras has played a key part in the Brewers' run of three-straight division titles, which is something his camp will no doubt point to in salary discussions. Paired with a third-straight Silver Slugger Award nomination, an impressive handling of the Brewers' ever-changing pitching staff, and the fact that he played 150 games while managing a fractured index finger last season, Contreras has a strong case in arbitration. In the end, I expect him to earn slightly more than what MLBTR projects.

1B Andrew Vaughn (MLBTR projected salary: $7.8 million)

Andrew Vaughn's arbitration case is easily the most interesting one that the Brewers face this offseason. After a brutal start to the season with the Chicago White Sox that had Vaughn playing in Triple-A at the time he was traded to Milwaukee, the 27-year-old first baseman went on an absolute tear for the Brewers during the second half of the season. He was integral to the team's midseason turn-around and a key part of their postseason series win over the Chicago Cubs. However, on paper, when paired with his performance with the White Sox at the beginning of the season, Vaughn's 2025 campaign looks rather pedestrian.

With Vaughn's camp pointing to the incredible success he had after donning a Brewers jersey, and the team pointing to the fact that he was still a -0.4 bWAR player over the course of the entire 2025 season, this one could get contentious. On top of that, a $7.8 million salary, just $200,000 less than Freddy Peralta will earn in 2025, would make Vaughn the sixth-highest player on the Brewers' roster. Therefore, I don't expect this one to be settled before Thursday's deadline, but if it is, expect the final number to be lower than MLBTR's projection.

2B Brice Turang (MLBTR projected salary: $4.4 million)

The Brewers' second baseman is not an easy arbitration case either. After an impressive breakout season, Brice Turang is eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career, but his inconsistent resume should make for an interesting discussion between him and the Brewers' camp. Turang has consistently improved throughout his three-year career, earning a Platinum Glove in 2024 and a Silver Slugger Award nomination in 2025, both of which should help his case in the upcoming arbitration process. However, a $4.4 million salary is still an aggressive estimation for a first-year eligible player.

It's difficult to find a perfect comparison for Turang, but Gleyber Torres' arbitration process from several years ago offers at least some guidance. The then-New York Yankees' second baseman was coming off of two All-Star seasons to start his career, followed by the shortened 2020 season during which his numbers dipped slightly. Even still, his two All-Star appearances earned him a $4 million salary in his first year of arbitration. That was five years ago, and arbitration salaries do rise with inflation each year, but the question still remains: was Torres' resume better than Turang's is at the current moment? I'm going to say slightly, and therefore project Turang to earn a little bit less than MLBTR's projection this year.

CL Trevor Megill (MLBTR projected salary: $4.2 million)

The Brewers' 2025 All-Star closer, Trevor Megill, also poses an interesting arbitration case this offseason. Last year, Megill made just $1.94 million in his first year of arbitration, in large part due to the fact that his role as closer was taken over by Devin Williams' return from injury halfway through the 2024 campaign. It's well-documented that the arbitration process rewards saves, leading closers to earn much higher salaries than their set-up men. In 2025, Megill racked up 30 saves, which explains the sizable increase in his MLBTR projected salary.

The team will be hard-pressed to find a flaw in Megill's 2025 performance, which was clearly the best of his five-year MLB career, especially considering the fact that Abner Uribe's takeover of the closer duties late in the season was the result of an injury, not underperformance on Megill's part. Additionally, Megill being named to the NL All-Star team should boost his 2026 salary even more. Therefore, I expect Megill's 2026 salary to be higher than the $4.2 million that MLBTR projects.

LHP Ángel Zerpa (MLBTR projected salary: $1.2 million)

The newest member of the Brewers' roster is eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career this winter, and due to his actual numbers not yet living up to his underlying metrics, his salary projection from MLBTR is a modest one. As has been documented extensively since the Brewers traded for him back in December, Milwaukee traded for the pitcher that they believe Zerpa can become, not the one he's been up to this point in his career.

On paper, his numbers look underwhelming, and given the fact that arbitration cases don't directly take into account the underlying metrics that make Zerpa so intriguing, it should come as no surprise if his eventual arbitration salary is underwhelming as well. Therefore, I expect Zerpa to agree to a contract right around the reasonable number that MLBTR proposed, give or take $100,000.

OF Garrett Mitchell (MLBTR projected salary: $1 million)

Garrett Mitchell's camp will have a tough time arguing for a salary much higher than the $1 million one that MLBTR projects he will make in 2026, and that has nothing to do with Mitchell's performance on the field. Rather, it has everything to do with the string of injuries that have prevented Mitchell from logging 162 games total during his first four seasons in MLB.

When he's been on the field, he's been electric, and there's every reason to believe that Mitchell is far more valuable than a $1 million salary if he can remain healthy for a majority of the season. However, until he proves to the Brewers that he can avoid injury, which unfortunately is not necessarily something he can control, Mitchell's arbitration salaries will reflect his lack of availability. Therefore, the $1 million salary that MLBTR projects, which is just slightly more than the projected league minimum salary of $760,000 in 2026, feels spot on for Mitchell.

Though much of the action will occur shortly before the deadline on Thursday evening, expect several deals to materialize throughout the week. There's always a possibility that the Brewers elect to avoid the arbitration process altogether with one of their players by signing them to a short- or long-term deal.