Recent history suggests Brewers need to close out NLDS in San Diego

It was a weekend that Milwaukee Brewers fans will never forget. After rallying for a dramatic victory in Game 1, Pat Murphy's squad followed it up with an even more improbable comeback on Sunday, when Jackson Chourio delivered one of the biggest postseason hits in franchise history, lining a two-run walk-off single against Padres closer Mason Miller to give the Brewers a 4-3 win in Game 2. Just like that, Milwaukee has a 2-0 NLDS lead and is now one win away from returning to the National League Championship Series for the second consecutive year.

The Brewers have put themselves in an excellent position, but there is still plenty of work to do. The Padres will now have home-field advantage for Games 3 and 4. Milwaukee was in this exact position last year during their memorable NLDS matchup with the Chicago Cubs and quickly saw their 2-0 series lead turn into a winner-takes-all Game 5 back at American Family Field.

For the Padres, the situation is now simple: they have to win three straight games to keep their season alive. The Brewers, meanwhile, just have to win one, but doing so sooner rather than later undoubtedly gives them a better shot at success in the NLCS.

Brewers exhaustion after Game 5 of 2025 NLDS proves sweep of Padres would be huge for NLCS chances

Last year's postseason gives the Brewers a strong motivation to close out this series as quickly as possible. Milwaukee held a 2-0 NLDS lead last October, but, as previously mentioned, the Cubs fought back and forced a winner-takes-all Game 5. The Brewers won that decisive game by a score of 3-1 and advanced to the NLCS, but the emotionally taxing nature of the final three games of the series and the added workload for their pitching staff made for an even more daunting task against the eventual World Series Champions in the NLCS.

Additionally, after defeating the Cubs in Game 5, the Brewers had just one off-day to recover before Game 1 of the NLCS. Just a few days later, the Brewers had been swept by the Dodgers and their memorable 2025 season abruptly came to an end. It would be unfair to put that sweep entirely on the five-game NLDS -- it's likely no team was beating the Dodgers given how well they played in the NLCS last year -- but there is no question that Milwaukee would have benefited from a fresher pitching staff and more time to recover before facing Los Angeles.

It will by no means be an easy task, closing the Padres out in San Diego. Petco Park was rocking during the Padres' NL Wild Card Series matchup against the Cubs, and that home-field advantage absolutely played a part in San Diego's two-game sweep of Chicago. Additionally, the Brewers haven't won a road postseason game since Game 3 of the 2018 NLCS -- a trend they need to buck in the coming days if they hope to avoid a winner-takes-all Game 5.

With the NLCS beginning Sunday, every extra day of recovery matters, and it is up to the Brewers to continue playing the complete and clutch brand of baseball they have shown throughout the first two games of the NLDS and hopefully close out the Padres in San Diego. Game 3 is set for tonight, starting at 8:30 p.m. CT on FS1. Dustin May will get the ball for the Brewers, while Nick Pivetta will get the nod for San Diego.

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