What Brewers should expect from Padres' Game 3 starter Nick Pivetta

Through the first two games of the NLDS, the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres have lived up to the hype around the two hottest teams in the baseball. The series has featured two tightly contested games, each decided by just one run, with both games presenting legitimate opportunities for either team to come out on top.

In Game 1, a potential ninth inning go-ahead home run from Ty France, one that may or may not have stayed in fair territory, had its course altered as it hit off the roof of American Family Field and was impressively caught by Jackson Chourio. Then, just a day later, Chourio came through again, delivering a walk-off, two-run single off Mason Miller to cap a thrilling comeback victory. With the back-to-back dramatic finishes, the Brewers are off to a commanding 2-0 series lead.

The series now heads to San Diego where Game 3 will be played tonight at 8:30 p.m. CT. Right-hander Dustin May, who the Brewers acquired at the trade deadline with thoughts of him pitching in the postseason, has been named Pat Murphy's Game 3 starter after much debate about who would take the ball for Milwaukee in their first road game of the playoffs. Opposing May for the Padres is right-hander Nick Pivetta.

Nick Pivetta has struggled against the Brewers but is riding a recent hot streak heading into Game 3

A year ago, Pivetta was the Padres’ Game 1 starter in the playoffs after posting a 2.87 ERA across 31 regular-season starts. In the 2025 NL Wild Card Series, he went five innings against the Chicago Cubs and surrendered two runs on two solo home runs while racking up nine strikeouts.

This year, the 33-year-old Pivetta spent the end of April through early September on the injured list with an elbow issue, but looked sharp upon returning, posting a 1.45 ERA over four starts to close out the regular season. He again faced the Cubs earlier this postseason, in the NL Wild Card Series rematch, this time as the Game 2 starter. He worked 3.1 innings, allowed just one earned run, and struck out four Cubs.

Pivetta had a short leash on Wednesday night against the Cubs and is likely to once again have one in Game 3 tonight, as San Diego cannot afford to let a must-win game get out of hand early. On the topic of quick hooks, Pivetta owns a career 8.76 ERA against the Brewers. Milwaukee has not faced him this season, but the last time the two parties met in September 2025, the Brewers worked five walks against Pivetta and scored three runs in 5.2 innings.

Pivetta is north-south, with a high arm angle of 57 degrees. He relies on an over-the-top four-seam that averages over 20 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) -- for reference, the average among right-handed pitchers in the major leagues is 15.6 IVB. Pivetta pairs his good rising fastball, which sits in the mid-90s, with a deep curveball that he uses mostly against left-handed hitters and a sweeper that he throws almost solely to righties. A poor cutter is seldom used to bridge the gap between his four-seam fastball and his true secondary offerings.

In a small sample size this year, Pivetta's four-pitch arsenal did generate a fair amount of strikeouts (30.0%) and they didn't come at the expense of a high walk rate (5.7%). However, when Pivetta misses in the zone, which can happen rather frequently for the veteran right-hander, he tends to give up loud contact as evidenced by a 45% hard-hit rate, a 90.3 average opponent exit velocity, and a concerning 10.9% barrel rate during his full season in 2025. Those issues have persisted this year, and give the Brewers an opportunity to once again hang a crooked number on Pivetta in Game 3.

Pivetta's career numbers against the Brewers are drastically different than May's numbers against the Padres. May owns a career 3.14 against San Diego, which includes a strong seven-inning showing in August for the Brewers and a complete game shutout in June as a member of the St. Louis Cardinals. Though May did experience some inconsistency at the end of the year, the pitching matchup slightly skews in favor of the Brewers.

However long Pivetta ultimately lasts on the mound, he enters the matchup having pitched quite well since returning from injury a month ago and, on paper, brings better command than Ray. While his career numbers against the Brewers may not be favorable, anything can happen in October, and the Brewers should by no means overlook San Diego's starter in tonight's Game 3 matchup.

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