The luckiest team in baseball? Several key Brewers statistics say otherwise

In recent years, the Milwaukee Brewers have developed a reputation among opposing fanbases as the “luckiest team in baseball.” Brewers fans, however, see a much different picture. They see elite team speed constantly applying pressure on defenses, a willingness to frequently show bunt that keeps opponents off balance, timely hitting, and a pitching staff loaded with swing-and-miss stuff capable of forcing uncomfortable at-bats.

Meanwhile, outsiders often focus on the highlights they see, which to them look like defensive miscues by opponents or ugly swings from opposing batters at pitches outside the zone, without recognizing the pressure Milwaukee consistently creates that leads to those moments in the first place. Moments like last night's obstruction call that allowed Jackson Chourio to score the game-tying run, or Sal Frelick's 60.7 mph two-RBI single against the San Diego Padres last week, could certainly be pointed to as indicators of the Brewers' luck, but this anecdotal evidence doesn't tell the full story.

In today’s advanced analytics era, “luck” can be loosely quantified by comparing actual offensive and pitching production to expected outcomes. When viewed through that lens, the underlying numbers largely back up the success the Brewers have been enjoying, and suggest they haven't simply been getting lucky.

Expected statistics prove the Milwaukee Brewers aren't simply getting lucky

As a whole, the Brewers hold a 25-17 record as play begins on May 16, but their expected record is 27-15. It should be noted that last season the Brewers' expected record (99-63) was also two games better than their actual record (97-65). However, expected record is by no means a perfect measurement of luck -- the metric simply estimates what a team's record should be based on their run differential. A few outlier games can skew a team's run differential, which doesn't necessarily indicate that they should have won more games.

However, when the Brewers' expected vs. actual stats are broken down more granularly, it reinforces this notion that they aren't nearly as lucky as some believe they are.

At the plate, the Brewers have posted a .313 wOBA, or weighted on-base average, an advanced metric that measures a hitter’s overall offensive value per plate appearance by assigning different run values to each outcome. In simple terms, it estimates how much offense each result contributes over the course of a season.

Milwaukee's expected wOBA (xwOBA) currently sits at .311. That expected figure incorporates underlying metrics such as exit velocity, expected batting average on balls in play, and even player sprint speed. The close alignment between wOBA and xwOBA suggests the Brewers are not benefiting from significant luck, but instead producing offense that is sustainable and true to who they are.

On the pitching side, the Brewers have posted a 3.32 team ERA, which ranks fourth-best in the league. To evaluate whether that success is driven by “luck,” their xERA, an expected ERA metric that estimates performance based on factors like exit velocity, launch angle, and plate appearance results, sits at 3.42, only slightly higher. For comparison's sake, the Chicago Cubs have a 3.80 ERA, but a .412 xERA.

In addition, Milwaukee leads MLB in strikeouts per nine innings at 9.81, fueled by a deep mix of dominant arms in both the rotation and bullpen. Advanced models like Stuff+, which evaluates the raw physical quality of pitches, also grade the Brewers the best in baseball at 107, further reinforcing the idea that their success is rooted in legitimate pitching quality rather than fortunate variance.

Taken together, both the pitching and hitting underlying metrics point to the same conclusion: this is not a team simply riding getting lucky or always benefiting from favorable breaks. Rather, the underlying metrics consistently track with their actual production, reinforcing that what they are doing is sustainable rather than fluky.

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