Why William Contreras has a fair chance of winning his 2026 arbitration case

As more and more days pass without news of William Contreras and the Milwaukee Brewers reaching an agreement on a salary for the upcoming 2026 season, the likelihood of the two sides having to go to an arbitration hearing continues to increase. Back in early January, when it was announced that Contreras and the Brewers didn't reach a deal prior to the deadline to exchange figures, MLB insider Mark Feinsand reported that it looked likely to the two parties would eventually go to a hearing; three weeks later, it appears as if Feinsand was right.

For the Brewers and Contreras, this is familiar territory as last year the two sides couldn't reach an initial agreement, but eventually met in the middle on a one-year, $6.0 million deal after being $900k on the figures they exchanged prior to the deadline. This year, the difference is slightly larger at $1.35 million (Contreras filed at $9.9 million and Milwaukee $8.55 million) -- a large reason why the two sides have yet to reach an agreement and will likely need to rely on third-party arbitrators to decide Contreras' 2026 salary.

Just a reminder of how these arbitration hearings work. The arbitrators can only choose either the $9.9 million salary that Contreras and his representation proposed or the $8.55 million salary the Brewers put forth. Any compromise in the middle would have to be reached by Contreras and the Brewers alone prior to the hearing. This means that the Brewers are essentially arguing that Contreras is worth less than $9.225 million -- the midpoint of the two salary figures -- and Contreras' camp is arguing that the 2x All-Star is worth more. Theoretically, if either side can convince the arbitrators that Contreras is worth just one dollar more or less than that midpoint, they will win the hearing.

Why William Contreras has a good chance of winning his arbitration case, if things reach that point

At present, the Brewers have filed for a salary that would tie the highest ever awarded to a catcher in his second year of arbitration, matching the $8.55 million Will Smith of the Dodgers received in 2024. While Smith later went on to sign a 10-year extension, that precedent was a few years ago, and with Contreras owning stronger career numbers in certain areas, he has a legitimate case to surpass that figure.

At six seasons into their MLB careers, Contreras has the edge over Smith in hits (602 vs. 554), doubles (122 vs. 104), batting average (.273 vs. .258), on-base percentage (.357 vs. .350), stolen bases (23 vs. 10),  single-season RBI (92 vs. 87), and single-season WAR (4.9 vs. 4.5). It should be noted that while the Brewers could argue that Contreras only has more career hits, doubles, and stolen bases because he's played more games than Smith had at this point, arbitrators do tend to reward "counting stats" as they are referred to, meaning these numbers could be cited by Contreras' camp as a reason for him to earn $9.9 million rather than $8.55 million.

Furthermore, Contreras has two All-Star nominations, two Silver Slugger awards, and received MVP votes in two seasons, finishing fifth in 2024, whereas Smith had just two All-Star nods through six seasons. Again, the Brewers could argue that Silver Slugger awards, MVP votes, and All-Star nods rely on the performance of the rest of the league rather than Contreras' alone, but arbitrators tend to reward these accolades in hearings.

Overall, the Brewers are likely favored heading into the hearing simply because of the high number that Contreras' camp filed at. If they only had to prove that Contreras was worth slightly more than what Smith earned a few years ago, they would have a real chance at winning the hearing. However, because of the stats and accolades that tend to be rewarded in arbitration hearings, Contreras walking away with a victory and a $9.9 million salary is not out of the question.