Checking in on the tightly-contested NL Rookie of the Year race

In the 56 seasons that the Milwaukee Brewers franchise has existed, only three of their players have taken home a Rookie of the Year (ROY) Award. The first Brewer to earn the honor was shortstop Pat Listach, who won AL Rookie of the Year back in 1992. Listach, who went on to play five seasons in Milwaukee, slugged just one home run during his ROY season, but his .290 batting average and 4.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) were enough to beat out Kenny Lofton, Dave Fleming, and fellow Brewer Cal Eldred.

Then, 15 years later, the Brewers took home their second ROY Award in franchise history, but their first since joining the National League. Ryan Braun, with a 34-home run campaign and an OPS north of 1.000, won NL ROY in 2007. Braun even earned MVP votes for his impressive rookie season and went on to become one of the best players in franchise history. In Braun's final MLB season, the shortened 2020 season, the Brewers got their third ROY Award. This time it was reliever Devin Williams who was deemed the NL's best rookie after posting a 0.33 ERA in 22 appearances. Williams became the first relief pitcher to win ROY since Craig Kimbrel took home the award in 2011.

Now, after Jackson Chourio finished third in NL ROY voting in 2024, the Brewers find themselves in the ROY conversation once again, with two players who could realistically take home the honor at the end of the season: Isaac Collins and Jacob Misiorowski. However, while The Miz was squarely in the NL ROY conversation just a few weeks ago, his recent performance has caused his odds to slip, putting pressure on his production over the rest of the season if he hopes to collect some hardware at the end of the year. Meanwhile, Collins has emerged as the odds-on favorite following his torrid stretch at the plate.

Isaac Collins leads NL Rookie of the Year race, Misirowoski's chances slipping with recent performance

In mid-July, following his appearance in the All-Star Game, it appeared as if Jacob Misiorowski was going to run away with the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Paul Skenes laid the blueprint last year, and The Miz looked poised to follow it to a tee. However, then Misiorowski suffered a minor injury that kept him out of the rotation for two starts, and since returning, he has not looked like the same pitcher. In two combined starts, he's covered just 5.1 innings, allowed eight earned runs, and walked six opposing batters. As such, entering play on August 23, Misiorowski has the 7th best odds to win NL ROY (+6600), according to BetMGM.

Meanwhile, Isaac Collins' last few weeks have been a completely different story. In the month of August, Collins is slashing .273/.364/.515 with 10 extra-base hits and as nearly as many RBI (13) as strikeouts (14). Paired with his NL Rookie of the Month-winning month of July and his strong month of June, Collins is now the odds-on favorite (-165) to win NL ROY at the end of the season.

However, Collins is not alone atop the NL ROY odds leaderboard. Atlanta Braves rookie catcher, Drake Baldwin, who happens to be an alum of Madison West High School, currently sits at +140 to win the award. Baldwin has more homers (13) and RBI (53) than Collins, but the Brewers' rookie outdoes the Braves' catcher in many other offensive categories.

Between Baldwin and Misiorowski on BetMGM's odds leaderboard are four players with a long shot of taking home the end-of-the-season award, but a strong final month could change that. Miami Marlins catcher Agustín Ramírez (+2200) is third on the list, a pair of Cubs, Matt Shaw (+2500) and Cade Horton (+3500), are fourth and fifth, and Hurston Waldrep (+4000) of the Braves currently ranks sixth.

Barring any major swings in performance over the last month of the regular season, the race will likely come down to Collins and Baldwin. At that point, it may come down to whoever has the stronger month of September, but at this moment, it's Collins' award to lose. A steady performance over the final month of the season should give the Brew Crew their fourth Rookie of the Year in franchise history.