How matchup with Padres could impact Brewers' NLDS pitching strategy

Despite both teams’ impressive number of postseason appearances in recent years, the Milwaukee Brewers, who have reached the playoffs six times since 2020, and the San Diego Padres, who have five playoff appearances this decade, are about to meet in the postseason for the first time ever.

There are several storylines that make this NLDS matchup particularly intriguing, one of which is the impending boos for Manny Machado, as the last time he faced the Brewers during the playoffs, he controversially stepped on Jesus Aguilar's foot at first base. Additionally, both teams are currently among the hottest in baseball, as each posted 18-6 records during the final month of the regular season, and their offenses have found their stride at the right time. Add two talented bullpens to the equation, and the series sets up as a compelling battle in which every pitching decision could carry significant weight.

The Padres’ anticipated roster and lineup could be a key factor in how the Brewers approach their pitching decisions. San Diego’s success against left-handed pitching and the fact that several of their key bats, Machado included, hit from the right side, could ultimately determine who ends up making the Brewers' NLDS roster and how Pat Murphy uses his pitching staff.

The Padres' success against left-handed pitching may factor into the Brewers' NLDS roster and pitching strategy

During the Padres’ Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs, San Diego faced left-hander Matthew Boyd in Game 1 and tagged him for three home runs. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Machado went deep in the first inning before Xander Bogaerts added another longball later in the game.

Of the three, Tatis posted a .987 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, while Machado and Bogaerts saw slight dips in their production, but have lengthy track records of success against southpaws. Pair that trio with right-handed slugger Ty France, who had a resurgent 2026 season, and San Diego's lineup looks like one the Brewers would rather attack with right-handers than southpaws.

Yes, the Brewers certainly have to worry about lefties Jackson Merrill and Gavin Sheets, but Merrill more than held his own against same-sided pitching this year, slashing .280/.302/.440 with six home runs, and Sheets seldom stays in the game for a matchup with a southpaw. Between that and San Diego's heavy right-handed approach, it would be very surprising to see Milwaukee use a left-handed opener in this series, and perhaps they won't carry or utilize as many lefties as well.

Branching off that, who Milwaukee turns to as its Game 3 starter after Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson becomes an even more intriguing decision than it already was. Dustin May and Robert Gasser seem to be the leading candidates for the start in Game 3, in a race that appeared to favor Gasser during the final weeks of the regular season. However, will May's handedness (and his dominance against San Diego in mid-August) skew the Brewers' decision?

Looking to the bullpen, the Brewers should still feel confident deploying Aaron Ashby. The southpaw owns a career 2.04 ERA against San Diego, with opposing hitters batting just .194 against him. And while the lefty-versus-righty matchup is worth considering, the Padres have also struggled against power pitching this season, posting just a .635 OPS as a team. Meanwhile, JoJo Romero, the left-hander the Brewers acquired at the trade deadline, has a career 1.54 ERA against the Padres.

The biggest question, however, remains: what to do with Kyle Harrison? Harrison, who got shelled in San Diego in August and struggled down the stretch, would be a far more intriguing high-ceiling inclusion on the Brewers' postseason pitching staff if Milwaukee were facing a team with a bunch of lefties at the top of their order -- like the Cubs. However, do Harrison's services become unnecessary against a right-handed heavy lineup like the Padres'? Brewers fans will get their answer when the NLDS roster is announced on Saturday morning, but it's important to note that their opponent's roster construction will absolutely factor into Milwaukee's own personnel decisions.

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