MLB experts' confidence in Brewers' 2026 NLCS chances already changes tone from last year

A season ago, when the Milwaukee Brewers began their NLCS matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Pat Murphy's squad was on the heels of an NLDS victory over the Chicago Cubs that was both emotionally and physically taxing. The Brewers, who took the first two games of the NLDS at American Family Field before dropping their two away games at Wrigley Field, won the decisive game five just 48 hours before taking on the defending World Champions. It took everything the Brewers had to defeat their arch-rivals in the NLDS, including two outings each from Freddy Peralta and Jacob Misiorowski, and, as a result, the roster was spent when they met Los Angeles' star-studded squad in the NLCS.

This year, however, things are a little different. Not only did the Brewers close out the San Diego Padres in four games, giving them three coveted days off before starting their rematch with Los Angeles, but Milwaukee's roster, particularly their starting pitching, is stronger than it was a season ago, while the Dodgers' roster, particularly their offense, isn't quite what it was last year. Pair that with the experience that most of Milwaukee's lineup has playing against the Dodgers in the NLCS, and the mood around this year's rematch is already different than it was a season ago.

Last year, few, if any, MLB insiders picked the Brewers to upset the Dodgers in the NLCS and advance to the World Series. Despite Milwaukee having the better record during the regular season, and therefore home-field advantage in the NLCS, predicting them to knock off Dave Roberts' assembly of stars was by no means a popular opinion. The same cannot be said this year.

The Athletic's staff of writers published a series of NLCS predictions this morning, and a majority of their staff (55%) picked the Brewers to defeat the Dodgers in the best-of-seven series. The Brewers' improved pitching staff, postseason experience, and better record against teams with a winning record were cited as reasons for a different outcome in this year's NLCS.

While experts' predictions have no actual impact on the outcome, as Brewers fans, who consistently see their team predicted to win far fewer games than they eventually do, certainly know, the predictions from The Athletic, which are linked below, further prove that this year's NLCS could look much different than last year's.

NLCS predictions: Will the Dodgers-Brewers rematch have a different outcome?

The Athletic's group of writers picking Brewers to defeat Dodgers in NLCS further proves this year is different

The Brewers fell in four games to the Dodgers in last year's NLCS, and scored just one run per game. Despite having a real chance to win Game 1 at American Family Field, it really never felt like the Brewers had a legitimate shot to knock off the Dodgers, who undoubtedly played their best baseball during the NLCS last year.

However, not only is the feeling around this year's Brewers team noticeably different, in part due to the fact that Milwaukee has shed the "underdog mentality," but there are more tangible reasons to believe the Brewers can knock off the mighty Dodgers this year. For instance, the Brewers have NL Cy Young front-runner Jacob Misiorowski lined up to start Game 1 and Game 5 if necessary. As strong as Freddy Peralta's 2025 season was, there's no denying Miz is on a different tier and therefore gives the Brewers a better chance to win when he takes the mound.

Additionally, Jackson Chourio, who battled a hamstring injury during last year's postseason, is at full strength and looking like the postseason hero Milwaukee needs him to be. Pair that with the fact that Christian Yelich has absolutely torched the ball through his first four postseason games of 2026, and William Contreras has hit his stride, and the Brewers' offense looks more formidable than it did at this time a year ago. Add a healthier and deeper Brewers bullpen, one that allowed just one earned run in 19 innings during the NLDS, to the equation, and The Athletic's predictions don't look far-fetched whatsoever.

The Brewers no longer want to be viewed as the underdogs. They don't want to think of a victory over the Dodgers as something improbable or requiring their roster to out-perform their normal expectations. Rather, the Brewers know that if they go out and play the level of baseball are capable of, they certainly have a chance to knock off the reigning back-to-back World Series champions. That mood is already being reflected by many league insiders.

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