The lineup change Pat Murphy must avoid in Game 3 of the NLDS

Roughly six hours remain before the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs begin their third matchup of the 2025 NLDS. With a commanding 2-0 lead in the series, the Brew Crew has an opportunity to be popping champagne in the visitors’ clubhouse at Wrigley Field before the day is done.

Quinn Priester will toe the rubber first for Milwaukee in today's game, opposing right-hander Jameson Taillon of the Chicago Cubs. It's set to be an excellent pitching matchup, with Taillon finding his form at the end of the season, and Priester being one of the steadiest arms in all of baseball throughout the summer.

Not only is Taillon the most "in-form" starting pitcher in Craig Counsell's starting rotation right now, but he also poses an important change from Chicago's first two starters of the series. Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, the Cubs' Game 1 and Game 2 starters, respectively, are both southpaws, whereas Taillon is a right-hander.

Mangers generally roll out two different lineups depending on whether they are facing a lefty or a righty, opting for a batting order full of right-handed hitters when facing a southpaw. However, when the postseason rolls around, some of that matchup strategy gets thrown out the window, as managers are quicker to go to their bullpens, which makes the starting pitching matchup moot. It's not always the case — we saw Counsell start Justin Turner over Michael Busch in Game 2 with left-hander Aaron Ashby making the start for Milwaukee — but Pat Murphy stuck with his best hitters, despite having three left-handed bats in the first six spots in his lineup.

Now, as the Brewers set their sights on Taillon, there's one crucial lineup decision Murphy continuously made throughout the final month of the season that he must stray from when he constructs today's starting nine.

Despite Jameson Taillon being a right-hander, Andrew Vaughn must be in today's starting lineup over Jake Bauers

Throughout the final few weeks of the season, both Andrew Vaughn and his left-handed platoon partner Jake Bauers were swinging hot bats. In fact, Bauers' 1.018 OPS in September led all Brewers hitters, while Vaughn's .942 mark was not far behind. The result was a fairly strict platoon, with Vaughn getting all of the starts against left-handed pitchers, and Bauers earning most of the playing time against right-handers.

Aided by Bauers' ability to play the outfield from time to time, the formula worked well in the regular season. However, despite the Brewers facing a right-hander this afternoon, it's Vaughn who belongs in the starting lineup, just as he was in each of the team's first two postseason games.

For starters, Vaughn is seeing the ball well at the plate right now. Not only did he slug an important three-run homer in the first inning of Monday night's Game 2 victory, but he also collected a hit in Saturday afternoon's contest, and has drawn two walks in eight plate appearances in the postseason thus far.

Additionally, Vaughn has more success than Bauers does against Taillon throughout their careers. Each has nine career at-bats against the Cubs' right-hander, but Vaughn has collected three hits, including a home run, whereas Bauers has just one single in his career when facing Taillon.

Bauers remains an excellent pinch hit option off the Brewers' bench, especially given his pinch hit heroics in the 2024 postseason, as well as an option to replace Vaughn defensively at first base late in the game. However, when today's lineups are released (generally about three hours before first pitch), it should be Andrew Vaughn's name at first base.